NZD: New Zealand Dollar is ready for correction

At the Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollar rate is traded slightly downward on Monday after having reached local highs last week. However the neutral external background may assist the delay of correction.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is crossing the signal line for the pair NZD/USD and continues to rise steadily, preserving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator stays in the overbought zone, giving the same signal.
 

Forex recommendations: in case of breakup at the level of 0.7690 the pair will go to 0.7700 and 0.7720. If the level is not exceeded, the pair will start consolidation near current levels.
 

Data released on trade balance last week turned out to be positive for the first time in 8 months. The main catalysts for this were high commodity prices and an increase in export levels of wood and dried milk.
 

Export levels increased by 17% y/y, import – by 23% y/y to the level of NZ$3.86 bln.
Export accounts for about 30% of NZ GDP and an increase in it will have a positive effect on the national economy.
Balance of current account in New Zealand decreased to -NZ$3.5 billion against the value of -NZ$1.77 billion in QIII. The balance is most likely decreased due to the seasonal factors and we surely can see improvement in the situation.

March data is not impressive: the level of NBNZ business outlook in New Zealand declined to -8.7 points in March against the level of 34.5 points in February. It is difficult to judge on the reasons of such a rollback, and one should wait for the next data to judge on the trend.
In the current situation possibility of forthcoming correction in the NZD/USD is high.

 

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