NZD: New Zealand Dollar is in the focus of traders

The New Zealand Dollar rate remains at the low level at the Forex currency market at the beginning of the week, because market has not any interest in risky positions. External background is still complex, which prevents from regaining from the previous sales.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair NZD/US, however it goes down, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone, giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7830 the pair will go to 0.7800 and 0.7780. 

The release of the data on the index of selling prices of manufactures in New Zealand for QI will attract traders’ interest this Wednesday.

The situation in the economic situation of New Zealand remains almost unchanged this morning.

According to the official data, the outflow of population was the highest in March over the past 10 years; migration factor will cause slowdown in the NZD recovery process.At the same time unemployment rate New Zealand fell to 6.6% in QI against the level of 6.8% in QIV, 2010. The forecast had been 6.7%. In addition the proportion of labor force increased to 68.7% against the previous level of 67.9%. Although indicators are favourable, ASB still believes that report is ambiguous: it is possible that the earthquake of February will have more serious impact on the economy than expected and it will have additional pressure on the labor market of New Zealand and will have an adverse affect on the prospects for the sector as a whole. 

It is also worth noting that budget deficit in New Zealand amounted to NZ$10.17 billion for the 9 months by 31 March which was in average 15% higher than expected by economists. This was the fact that provoked previous sales of the NZD.

It became known earlier that house prices index in New Zealand increased by 1.1% m/m in April, as per REINZ estimates against the forecast of growth by 0.5% m/m. In addition the agency reported that the level of house sales last month was -4.2% y/y against the level of -5.1% y/y in March. 

Macro- economic data, released last week showed that house prices fell by 1.9% m/m in April against the decline by 2.0% in March and credit cards expenses rose by 1.7% ?/? in April against the increase by 0.5% in March. Therefore, real estate sector of New Zealand started to recover and it is a strong supportive factor for the economy.

Recall that the Reserve Bank of Zealand has left interest rate unchanged, at the level of 2.5% per annum. The head of the RBNZ Mr. Bollard stressed that interest rate is not going to be changed yet. The regulator pointed in the follow-up comments that high rate of the New Zealand Dollar is undesirable, since it has a negative impact on the economy. 

 

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