NZD: New Zealand Dollar is in anticipation of strong catalysts

At the Forex currency market on Friday the New Zealand Dollar rate is traded upward, however neither fundamental nor external grounds are there to start rapid growth. Situation in the global capital markets slightly stabilized by the end of the week; however more solid grounds are required for the significant rise. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is in the negative area and goes down, giving a sell signal.  Stochastic Oscillator is moving in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8250, the pair will go to 0.8265 and 0.8280.

As it became known on Friday, consumer confidence index ANZ in New Zealand fell to 112.6 points in September against the level of 113.3 points in August. It is clear that macro-economy does not provide any support to the NZD.

A meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was held yesterday. Outcome of the meeting was predictable, investors were upset. Thus, interest rate was left at the previous level of 2.50% as expected. 

The RBNZ noted in the comments that a pause in revision of the rate has lasted so long, due to poor economic prospects of the countries which are commercial partners of New Zealand. In particular, the Central Bank is concerned about the situation in the USA and in Europe as a whole. At the same time, previous high level of exchange rate of the AUD exerted pressure on the national economy. According to RBNZ it seems reasonable at the moment to leave the rate unchanged at the previous level so as to take into account risks of the global economy.

In addition, it became known that purchasing manager index PMI BNZ in New Zealand fell to 52.9 points in August against the previous level of 53.2 points. The index had been declining for the third consecutive month which demonstrates slowdown in the sector.

According to the released data, consumer confidence ANZ in New Zealand increased to 114.4 points in August against preliminary level of 109.4 points. CPI in New Zealand rose by 1.0% q/q (+5.3% y/y) in Q2 against the forecast of growth by 0.8% on quarterly basis. This was another positive feature in the outline of New Zealand economy. It is worth noting that number of permits to construct in New Zealand decreased by 1.4% m/m in July against the forecast of +3.0%. Activity in the construction sector of Australia was at the level of - 6.6 q/q in Q2, which agreed with the revised data in Q1. The NZD did not respond to the data too much. As it was made public earlier, retail sales in New Zealand increased by 0.9% q/q in Q2 against the forecast of growth by 0.7% on quarterly basis. According to the details given in the report the growth is attributed to the sale of motor spare parts, electrical goods and medicine.