NZD: New Zealand Dollar is being sold on Tuesday

At the Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollar subsides on Tuesday amid weak statistics and continuing risk aversion.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair NZD/USD and is going down, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator rises in the neutral zone, giving a pair buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7950/60 the pair will go to 0.7990. if the level of 0.7920 is exceeded, the level of 0.7880 will become the target of decline.

The following New Zealand data was released today:

– House prices fell by 1.9% m/m in April against the decline by 2.0% in March;

– Credit cards expenses rose by 1.7% ?/? in April against the increase by 0.5% in March.

In addition, budget deficit in New Zealand amounted to NZ$10.17 billion for the 9 months by 31 March which was in average 15% higher than expected by economists. This fact provoked sales of the NZD.

According to the official data, the outflow of population was the biggest in March over the past 10 years– migration figures will cause slow down in the NZD recovery process.

At the same time unemployment rate New Zealand fell to 6.6% in QI against the level of 6.8% in QIV, 2010. The forecast had been 6.7%. In addition the proportion of labor force increased to 68.7% against the previous level of 67.9%. Although indicators are favourable, ASB still believe that report is ambiguous: it is possible that the earthquake of February will have more serious impact on the economy than expected and it will have additional pressure on the labor market of New Zealand and will have an adverse affect on the prospects for the sector as a whole.

We would remind that the Reserve Bank of Zealand left interest rate unchanged, at the level of 2.5% per annum. The head of the RBNZ Mr. Bollard stressed that interest rate is not supposed to be changed so far. Regulator pointed in the follow-up comments that high rate of the New Zealand Dollar is undesirable, since it has a negative impact on the economy.

Macro-statistics released this week showed that construction permits in New Zealand rose by 2.2% m/m in March against preliminary forecast of decline by 9.7% m/m.

 

 

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