NZD: New Zealand Dollar has not determined movement direction yet
At the Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollar rate is traded downwards on Monday; however activity in the pair NZD/USD is not too high, as investors do not rush to determine medium-term prospects.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and maintains a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has pushed away from the oversold zone and is now growing in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7860, the pair will go to 0.7840 and 0.7820. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the achieved levels.
It became known on Monday morning that volume of retail sales in New Zealand increased by 2.2% q/q in Q3 against preliminary level of growth of 1.0%. In addition, activity index in the service sector BNZ decreased to 50.6 points in October against preliminary level of 52.9 points.
Statistics is still mixed which it the reflection of strong impact of the developments both in Europe and in China. According to the data released earlier, home sales REINZ in New Zealand declined by 0.3% m/m (+28.3% y/y) in October. This data was neutral for the NZD. Consumer confidence index in New Zealand amounted to 109.0 points in November against 112.2 points for the previous period. This data is another indication of the slowdown in the economy of New Zealand.
According to previous data, GDP in New Zealand rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Thus New Zealand economy is actually in the state of stagnation. GDP almost stopped growing in the last quarter, which only proves that the decision of the RBNZ not to change the levels of the interest rate was logical. The report disappointed market and currently it is quite possible that regulator will keep interest rates at this level for a long time, at least until the end of spring 2012. As it was made public earlier, house prices QV in New Zealand increased by 0.7% y/y in September against the rise of 0.1% y/y in August.
According to economists from Fitch, current account surplus in New Zealand will expand in 1012 and amount to 4.9%, in 2013-5.5%. At the same time, net level of foreign debt of New Zealand is above the level corresponding to its ranking. These have been the key in the issue of lowering of the rating. Finance Ministry of the country noted that rating agencies in the world are too cautious about debt problems and it is still unknown whether the similar actions should be expected from other players in the ranking sector.
