JPY: the Japanese Yen rate is not afraid of the potential intervention

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate is traded upward again on Friday – in spite of the government being ready for the intervention.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/JPY, but starts rising, ready to form a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator starts growing in the neutral zone giving a weak buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 76.60, the pair will go to 76.50 and 76.30. If breakup does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

A solid set of macroeconomic data was released this morning:

– overall nationwide CPI in Japan totaled +0.2% y/y in August against the forecast of +0.1% y/y;

– Household spending in Japan totaled -4.1% y/y in August against the forecast of -2.8% y/y;

– Unemployment Rate in Japan decreased to 4.3% in August against both the forecast and previous level of 4.7%.

Besides it became known that currency intervention fund will be increased by JPY15 k, and the Finance Ministry noted that it would continue to monitor all possible speculative movements at the Forex currency market and couldn’t exclude actions to be taken.

As it became known the day before, Japanese politicians will take a set of measures to weaken the national currency in the long term. Presumably, the measures will include using JPY in M&A and in securing electric payments.

It should be noted that the Japanese Finance minister said that the third money tranche to restore injured by an earthquake objects will amount to JPY11 trln. He also noted that all measures influencing the national currency will ne taken “if needed”.

Statistics released earlier showed that real revised GDP in Japan fell by 0.5% q/q (-2.1% y/y) in Q2 against the forecast of -0.5% q/q (-2.0% y/y) and previous level of -0.3% q/q. Statistics released yesterday showed that bank lending fell by 0.5% in August against the decline of 0.6% in July. In addition, index of economical observers who monitor current situation fell to 47.3 points in August against the level of 52.6 points in July. Retail sales in Japan fell by 2.6% y/y in August against growth by 0.6% in July. So the consumer still avoid spending waiting for the tax rise.