JPY: Japanese Yen tries to rise again

The Japanese Yen rate does not give up its attempts to rise in pairing with the USD at the Forex currency market on Friday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY and si moving along the signal line, not giving a clear signal, although the volumes remain high. Stochastic Oscillator has come into the oversold zone on Friday and is giving a pair sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 83.45 the pair will go to 83.50 and 83.70. If the level of 83.10 is exceeded, traders’ targets will become the levels of 83.00 and 82.90.

Today’s statistics showed that the revised volume of industrial output in Japan rose by 1.8% m/m in February against the preliminary level of +0.9%. This is a mediate indicator for the Yen because it shows the situation prior to the earthquake in March. Statistics released this week showed that volume of orders for the basic production equipment in Japan reduced by 2.3% m/m in February for the first time in the last three months while a month earlier the index had increased by 4.2%. The indicator gives an idea about the amount of capital investments in production sector for the next 3-6 months. Thus, continuation of companies’ cost reduction threatens to the Japanese economy in addition to the fact that the situation in the business sector has already been very hard after the series of earthquakes and tsunamis.

Statistics released earlier was positive (unemployment rate amounted to 4.6% in February, unrevised; balance of current account increased by 3.0% y/y in February against the fall by 47.6% in January; level of import increased by 3.3% y/y, export rose by 4.1% y/y).

It became known on Wednesday morning that starting from 18 April Ministry of Finance will begin to repurchase government bonds from the market in the amount of  Y160 billion. Japanese Finance Minister Mr. Yosano noted yesterday that economic recession after the earthquake is temporary and by the end of the year the situation can improve in the Country of the Rising Sun. According to Yosano the main factor of uncertainty is instability of power supply and its possible shortage. 

 

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