JPY: Japanese Yen stays near lows
The Japanese Yen rate remains weak at the Forex currency market.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/JPY, but going upward, confirming a former buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone today, maintaining a similar signal.
Forex recommendations: in case buyers’ sentiments preserve, the pair will move to 82.90 and 83.10. If the breakup doesn’t occur, the pair will start consolidation near the current levels.
As it became known on Thursday, Manufacturing PMI in Japan according to Nomura decreased to the level of 46.4 points in March against the level of 52.9 points seen in February. The data is of no surprise taking into consideration the ravages after earthquake in March and the following tsunami.
Statistics for March came out weak as expected: the level of Small Business Confidence decreased to 49.5 points in March against the level of 56.6 points seen in February.
Meanwhile Tuesday’s data turned out to be strong (unemployment rate decreased to the level of 4.5% in February against the level of 4.9% in January; the level of retail sales rose by 0.1% y/y in February against the same increase in January), but these are indicators for February – outdated for now.
The day before representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Miyao said the day before yesterday that the regulator shall carefully trace all risk factors for the process of Japanese economic recovery. In addition, time frame and volumes of reconstruction is not known yet which makes obscure further economic outlooks of the Country of the Rising Sun.
It is likely that in the medium term the pair USD/JPY has a good chance to overstep the level of 84,0.
Currently it is obvious that aftermath of the earthquake in March will impact on the economy – according to the estimates of the World Bank disasters in Japan in March will reduce GDP of the country in the middle of this year by 0.25%-0.5%; however it is possible that rapid economic growth will follow after that.
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