JPY: Japanese Yen is traded inactively

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen is traded upward on Thursday, partly smoothing over yesterday’s fall. Prospect of future trades for Japanese Yen still seems ambiguous.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY, however it began to descend, giving grounds for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving an antipodal signal on Thursday, being in the neutral zone.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 84.40 the pair will go to 85.00 and 85.40. If the level of 84.10 is exceeded, traders’ targets will be the levels of 83.70 and 83.40.

In general, macro economic situation in Japan remains unchanged. Vice Minister of Finance Mr. Sakurai noted this morning that while drafting country’s budget we should turn out mind on long term capital gain.

Investors’ attention was focused on Tankan report which showed decline for the first time in 7 quarters – up to the level of 5 against the previous level of 8 and the forecast of 3. Quarterly report of the Bank of Japan which shows sentiments in the business circles of the country once again confirmed the fact that Japanese indicators of QIV will be weak, which will indicate downturn in economy. Market believes that Tankan indicator will go down to -2 by March 2011 which will mean that pessimists dominate over optimists in the business-class of Japan.

Previous long awaited Japanese GDP data for QIII looks fabulous against this background. Real GDP was revised to +1.1 q/q (+4.5% y/y) against preliminary estimate of +0.9%.  It is interesting that according to the Japanese Cabinet, the rise in index was promoted by the growth in private sector consumption, which usually accounts to about 60% of GDP. Special demand was observed in the energy-efficient cars for the reason that period of subsidy provided for them will expire soon. It is unlikely that we will be able to see similar results in QIV.
 

 

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