JPY: Japanese Yen is stable on Tuesday

The Japanese Yen rate is stable at the Forex currency market on Tuesday: morning marked attempts to strengthen on good statistics, but all movements in USD/JPY are again insignificant as regulators still monitor all Forex fluctuations with the participation of the currency.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/JPY, slightly going upward, giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone today.

Forex recommendations: leaning on the general external and internal background, off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.70 the pair will go to 81.90 and 82.10. If the level of 81.50 is exceeded, traders’ targets will become the levels of 81.30 and 81.00.

Important data published in Japan today contains:
– Unemployment rate decreased to the level of 4.5% in February against the  level of 4.9% in January;
– The level of retail sales rose by 0.1% y/y in February against the same increase in January;
– The level of Small Business Confidence decreased to 49.5 points in March against the level of 56.6 points seen in February;
– Household spending decreased by 0.2% y/y in February against the reduction by 1.0% y/y in January.

Thereby the statistics turned out to be mixed: while Japan labour market continued to rise in February on economic recovery, the level of household spending reflected winding up of stimulus programs.

Currently it is obvious that aftermath of the earthquake in March will impact on the economy – according to the estimates of the World Bank disasters in Japan in March will reduce GDP of the country in the middle of this year by 0.25%-0.5%; however it is possible that rapid economic growth will follow after that.

The day before representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Miyao said the day before yesterday that the regulator shall carefully trace all risk factors for the process of Japanese economic recovery. In addition, time frame and volumes of reconstruction is not known yet which makes obscure further economic outlooks of the Country of the Rising Sun.

We would remind that earlier Japan with the help of Central Banks of B7 countries conducted currency intervention, which discarded the Yen from local highs. As noted by the representative of the Bank of Japan Noda, countries of B7 conducted intervention, using the pair Euro/Yan. Currency intervention was not aimed at certain levels.

 

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