JPY: Japanese Yen goes on testing peaks of March indefatigably
The Japanese Yen rate continues to grow at the Forex currency market on Tuesday morning due to the preservation of high level of uncertainty and weakness of the USD.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF, and is going down, shaping a sell signal; volumes are high. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone, giving a sell signal and tightly approaching oversold zone.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 78.00, the pair will go to 77.90 and 77.60.
As it became known today, price index for corporate service in Japan rose by 0.3% m/m (-0.7% y/y) in June versus the level of -0.3% in May.On Tuesday morning, Finance Minister Mr. Noda stressed that authorities continue to close monitoring situation with the Yen and one should be prepared to its further growth.
Last week Mr. Noda had already paid attention to the expensive Yen. He noted that the Yen is moving only in one direction lately. He believed that stabilization in Greece would encourage improvement of the general situation in the market.Representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Yamaguchi said that high rate of the JPY would no effect on the actual state of economy.At the meeting which was held last week, the Bank of Japan decided to leave interest rate unchanged in the target range of 0-0.1% per annum, as expected.Lending program was also left unchanged in the volume of 30 trillion yen.
According to the Bank estimates, real level of GDP will rise by 0.4% in the fiscal year of 2011 (forecast of April had been more optimistic: +0.6%). In the fiscal year of 2012, GDP growth is expected in the volume of 2.9% which would agree with the April forecast. Next year CPI is predicted to be at the level of +0.7%.Exports in Japan decreased by 1.6% y/y last month against the forecast of decline by 4.1% y/y; imports rose by 9.8% y/y, while expected growth had been 11.0% y/y.
Trade balance in Japan increased to the level of +Y70.7 billion in June against the forecast of -Y149.0 billion; therefore the balance exceeded limits of the two-month downfall of deficit. It is of interest that starting from this June the Bank of Japan is going to raise its estimate for economic growth in the country, as the growth in the production volumes has triggered revival of exports, and, at the same time, private demand is also growing.
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