JPY: Japanese Yen determines movement direction

The Japanese Yen rate stands still at the Forex currency market on Friday morning after yesterday’s correction.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY is in the negative area and started to grow, giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone, giving a sell signal.

 Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.70 the pair will go to 81.10 and 81.30. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will go to 80.30/20.

The Bank of Japan noted that the rise in exports and in consumer sentiment is noticeable; while uncertainty in the economy is fading away and we can expect improvement in the general state of economy in the Country of the Rising Sun.

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This week, Finance Minister of Japan Mr. Noda, who has not been in public for quite a long time, said that authorities continue to closely monitor currency market; and they remain confident that currency rates should reflect macro-economic foundation. In the event that motion will be chaotic in nature, Finance Ministry intends to take drastic measures. The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa said in the middle of the week that economy of the country is still under severe pressure and its recovery is expected in the second half of the fiscal year. According to him shortage in supply is decreasing faster than expected; however excessive focus on the level of business activity can lead to risks

Preliminary volume of retail sales in Japan reduced by 4.8% y/y in April against expectations of fall to -6.0% y/y; in addition, net CPI in Japan rose by 0.1% y/y in May against the increase of 0.2% in April. Japan has confronted with the rise in inflation for the first time over 28 months, which is crucial for the economy; however, it requires confirmation over the next few months. Japanese consumer prices grew by 0.6% y/y excluding food, and prices for utilities and food skyrocketed.

It became known earlier that revised real GDP in Japan fell by 0.9% on quarterly basis (-3.5% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of -0.8%. This data only confirms the view that Japanese economy is weak – GDP fell lower than expected, although the forecast had been quite pessimistic.

According to the data released earlier trade balance deficit in May (first 20 days) rose to Y1.053 trillion against the level of Y465 billion in April. It also became known that exports volume for the first 20 days in May totaled - 9.3% y/y versus the fall of -12.4% in April.

At the meeting of the Bank of Japan this week, the regulator decided to leave interest rate unchanged, in the target range of 0-0.1% per annum. In addition, the regulator announced the launch of a new lending program at a rate of 0.1%; the amount of available funds will be Y500 billion. This measure is aimed at supporting economic recovery and can maintain the process of recovery that is hardly noticeable at the moment.

 
 

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