GBP: Sales continue for the British Pound

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate continues to fall – the sales today were caused by the risk aversion due to the increasing radioactivity threat in Japan.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair GBP/USD and is going up, maintaining a pair buy signal, however indicator’s volumes has slowed down the growth. Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the overbought zone today and is going down in the neutral zone, giving a sell signal. 

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6290 the pair will go to 1.6270 and 1.6250.

Today in the afternoon investors will await statistics on the consumer prices level in Great Britain in March. If we will witness the rise in the rate once again, the Pound will receive support. At 12.30 Moscow time trade balance will be also made public.

Thus, the USD is gaining strength again against the Pound, therefore fears of the last week regarding the U.S. budget are pushed to the sidelines. It became known yesterday that index of retail sales BRC in Great Britain increased by 2.4% y/y in March against the growth by 2.7% y/y in February.  

Sales in the service sector are expected to be at the level of +6 points in QI against +5 in the last quarter; orders can increase to +5 against -7 earlier.

The UK important data will be published on 27 April – it will be GDP in QI and monetary authorities hope to see the growth by 0.7%. If economic growth will be affirmed the rate can be increased to 0.75% per annum in the medium term. The meeting of the Bank of England did not give any surprises: interest rate was left at the level of 0.50% per annum, assets redemption program was also maintained in the previous volume.

According to the minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England, 6 members of MPC voted for keeping interest rate at the previous level. In addition 8 people voted for the maintenance of the current assets redemption program unchanged.  Posen voted for the rise in the QE to 50 billion pounds.
The GBP/USD maximum in 2010 is at 1.6459, however strong stop is located at around 1.6445/50.

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