GBP: BritishPound started this week with decline

The British Pound Sterling rateis traded slightly downward at the Forex currency market on Monday due to mixedsentiment at the world financial platforms.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pairGDP/USD has broken through the signal line from top to bottom last week, and istraded in the negative area, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goesdown in the neutral zone, giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat the level of 1.5605 the target for selling will be the levels of 1.5590 and1.5570.

Activity in the British construction sectordeclined in November, which was demonstrated by statistics released at the endlast week. According to Markit estimates, PMI CIPS amounted to 52.3 points inNovember against 53.9 points earlier; however dynamics in new houses ispositive, and it upward trend can be interpreted as an indication of the futurestabilization in the sector.

It became known earlier that PMI index in themanufacturing industry amounted to 47.6 points in November, as per CIPS/MARKITestimates. The index is above expectations which supported growth of the Pound.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr.Weale believes that economy of the country will not reach pre-crisis levelsuntil Q3 2013, and growth of capital will support consumption. He believes thatmonetary policy alone cannot fix up economy and there is a high possibilitythat QE will be launched if the state of economy does not improve after thefirst round of stimulation. Weale also indicated that there are signs of newrecession.

According to NABE, unemployment rate in theUK will be around 8.7% in 2012 against previous forecast of 8.5%; there is achance that employment will increase up to 100 thousand in Q4 this year. It isexpected that policy of the Bank of England will continue to be soft next yearand GDP will amount to 2.2% in Q1 next year against predicted level of 2.5% inQ4 this year.

It also became known last week that ratingagency Fitch did not excluded probability that the UK ranking could bedowngraded, as national budgetary reserves of the country have been ratherdepleted. The agency believes that economic growth rate in the UK will slowdown and influence of the European debt crisis will increase, which willeventually put in question current rating of the country.