CHF: Swiss Franc tends to grow

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate begun to rise on Monday after two days of rollback earlier.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF and is going down, maintaining a pair sell signal and tending to continue movement along the signal line. Stochastic Oscillator has reached overbought zone and is giving a pair buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8760 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.8775 and 0.8795. f the level of 0.8730 is exceeded, traders’ target will be the level of 0.8700.

The situation in Swiss economy has not changed fundamentally; external background puts the main pressure on the pair. 

The data released earlier showed that real retail sales in Switzerland decreased by 0.2% in March against the growth by 1.8% in February. In addition index SVME – PMI in Switzerland fell to 58.4 points in April against the previous level of 59.3 points.

The head of the National Bank of Switzerland, Mr. Hildebrand noted that strong and expensive Franc undermines exports and disrupts tourism industry; therefore negative impact of the CHF can be stronger than predicted. “We intend to take any measures to achieve price stability” stressed monetary politician. According to him, downside risks to recovery are still preserved, although economy demonstrates more steady growth rate than previously expected. Statement made by Hildebrand that long term expansionary monetary policy constitutes a menace to some industrial sectors is worthy of being noted.

Real level of retail sales in Switzerland increased by 1.5% m/m in February against the decline by 2.4% m/m in January; level of CPI in Switzerland rose by 0.6% m/m (+1,0% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth by 0.2% m/m. It is an ambiguous factor for Swiss economy as on the one hand the economy strengthens and on the other hand it suffers from significant inflationary pressure.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.660 points in March against the revised level of 1.453 points in February; while volume of export in Switzerland fell by 4.8% m/m in March against the level of +3.6% m/m in February. Franc has ignored this statistics.

 

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