CHF: Swiss Franc stays put near highs

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate stays put on Tuesday, keeping position near local highs.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF and goes down, forming a pair sell signal; while volumes are increasing. Stochastic Oscillator tends to come out of the oversold zone; however it has been keeping this position for a few days already, maintaining a pair sell signal. 

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8340, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.8326 and to new lows of 0.8300. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate close to the current levels.

Swiss consumer price index in May will be made known today (the index fell to 0.1% m/m in April against the previous level of 0.6%).

It became known earlier that the level of trade balance in Switzerland rose by 1.52 billion in April against the rise of 1.0 billion in March. In addition, exports in Switzerland increased by 7.9% in April against the fall by 3.1% in March. Index of leading indicators KOF in Switzerland rose to 2.30 points in May against the forecast of growth by 2.22 points.

In addition, index of PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 59.2 points against the forecast of 57.5 points. It proves once again that national economy has learnt to be effective even in circumstances where national currency is expensive.

GDP in Switzerland slowed down growth rate in QI this year, increasing by 0.3% on quarterly basis (+2.4% y/y) against the rise of 0.8% last quarter and the forecast of growth of 0.6 %.

According to estimates of the SNB, the main activator for economic growth in Switzerland is still national consumer demand, triggered by the rise in the demand for houses and health care expenditure, as well as high level of export.

Julius Baer Group believes that it is not clear yet whether Swiss economy requires the increase in the interest rate or not: “any rise will have an impact on the economy as a whole for a year”. However it is quite possible that local economy and its recovery process are strong enough to cope with the interest rate rise to 1%-1.5%. 

 

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