CHF: Swiss Franc remains in the tight range near historic highs

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc stays in the tight range near this week’s historic highs on Friday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF and goes down, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has left the oversold zone today and began growing in the neutral zone giving a pair buy signal.

Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8700 the pair will retest a historical low of 0.8671 and then move to 0.8650. If the breakdown doesn’t occur, the pair will continue consolidation in the current range.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.660 points in March against the revised level of 1.453 points in February; while volume of export in Switzerland fell by 4.8% m/m in March against the level of +3.6% m/m in February. Franc has ignored this statistics.

Real level of retail sales in Switzerland increased by 1.5% m/m in February against the decline by 2.4% m/m in January; level of CPI in Switzerland rose by 0.6% m/m (+1,0% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth by 0.2% m/m. It is an ambiguous factor for Swiss economy as on the one hand the economy strengthens and on the other hand it suffers from significant inflationary pressure.

Three-month Libor rate remains unchanged, at the level of 0.25%.

Trade balance in Switzerland decreased to 1.09 billion francs in March against the revised value of 2.38 billion in February; although economists had expected the reduction to 2.1 billion francs, supporters of the Swiss Franc were not deeply vexed.

The data of last week showed that economic sentiment index - ZEW increased to 8.8 points in April against the fall by 13.5 points in February. It was a positive sign for Switzerland which confirmed the continuation of the national economic recovery even regardless of strong Franc. The data of last week demonstrated also that producer price index and prices for import increased by 0.4% y/y in March which agrees with the forecasts.

KOF leading indicators will be released today.?

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