CHF: Swiss Franc quickly weakens
At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate weakens on Monday, continuing Friday’s trend. There were rumors in the market on Friday that Swiss National Bank was planning to hold a press-conference to clarify its monetary stance; however it did not happen and it became a negative factor for Franc.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD is going up in the positive area and is shaping a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone shifting towards oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9290, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9300 and 0.9320.
It is obvious that the inflow of speculative positions in Franc is still closely regulated by CHB.
It became known last week that trade balance in Switzerland amounted to 2.15 billion francs in October against the forecast of 2.06 billion francs. The data is good, considering global slump in demand and expensive Franc.
Surplus of trade balance amounted to 1850 billion SHF in September. It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 0.84 points in September against the revised level of 0.80 points in August. Taking into account that the data reflects the figures of the months when SNB has fixed the rate of the Franc, the index looks very much positive. Producer prices and import prices in Switzerland declined by 0.1% m/m (-2.0% y/y) in September.
Unemployment rate in Switzerland rose to 2.9%, which had been an expected rise from 2.8%. The data which is going to be released this week will show index in dynamics.
Representative of SNB Mr. Jordan reported earlier that Swiss regulator does not need external guidance on monetary policy, as it is an independent institution and does not intend to receive instructions from business groups and politicians. SNB will continue to take appropriate measures if it is required considering the state of economic forecasts and deflation. According to him slowdown in economic growth in Switzerland, which took place earlier, was caused by high exchange rate of Swiss Franc.
According to Swiss National Bank estimates, GDP in Switzerland will amount to 1.5%-2.0% this year; main growth will be attributed to the results of the first part of the year. SNB noted in the comments that if stringent monetary measures had not been taken the economy would have slipped to a recession. SNB expects that inflation will be at the level of 0.4% in 2011 and at the level of 0.3% next year.
