CHF: Swiss Franc maintains positions near historic highs
At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate is traded upward on Tuesday remaining close to the historic peak which it has reached earlier.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF, continuing to grow slowly and shifting to a lateral movement. Stochastic Oscillator has come into oversold zone, giving a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8330, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.8318, and to new lows of 0.8300.
If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate close to the current levels.Swiss leading indicators index KOF in June will be known in the middle of the week, index of industrial sector will be made public on Friday (reduction to 57.8 points is predicted against the previous value of 59.2 points).In other respect Swiss economic situation remains stable.
GDP in Switzerland has slowed down growth rate in QI this year, increasing by 0.3% on quarterly basis (+2.4% y/y) against the rise of 0.8% last quarter and the forecast of growth of 0.6 %. The data released earlier showed that CPI in Switzerland remained unchanged on monthly basis (+0.4% y/y) in May against the forecast of decline by 0.1% m/m (+0.3% y/y).It became known earlier that trade balance in Switzerland rose by 3.31 billion francs in May against the value of +1.44 billion in April. In addition, level of exports fell by 1.5% m/m in May against the growth of 3.1% in April.
Statistics released earlier showed that producer prices and prices for imports decreased by 0.2% (-0.4% y/y) in May against the forecast of growth by 0.1% m/m. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 2.9% in May against the level of 3.1% in April and the forecast of 3.0%. At the meeting last week Swiss National Bank left three- month Libor rate in the previous range of 0-0,75% with a tendency to 0.25%.
At the same time, the SNB said that GDP growth would amount to 2% this year. Inflation in 2011 is predicted at around +0.9% (previously +0.8%), in 2012: +1.0% (previously 1.15), in 1013: +1.7% (previously +2.0%).It is worth noting that index of PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 59.2 points against the forecast of 57.5 points. It proves once again that national economy has learnt to be effective even in circumstances where national currency is expensive.
Julius Baer Group believes that it is not clear yet whether Swiss economy requires the increase in the interest rate or not: “any rise will have an impact on the economy as a whole for a year”. However it is quite possible that local economy and its recovery process are strong enough to cope with the interest rate rise to 1%-1.5%.
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