CHF: Swiss Franc is getting weaker in the middle of the week

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate is getting weaker on Wednesday after two days of steady growth, and is returning now into the oversold range.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD is in the positive area and is moving along the signal line while volumes are high and is not giving any signals. Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the overbought zone and is going down in the neutral zone, giving a sell signal

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of break down at the level of 0.9250, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9260 and 0.9280.  If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

Macro-economic background in Switzerland remains almost unchanged today.

According to the estimates of Swiss National Bank, GDP in Switzerland will amount to 1.5%-2.0% this year; main growth will be attributed to the results of the first part of the year. SNB noted in the comments that if stringent monetary measures had not been taken the economy would have slipped to a recession. SNB expects that inflation will be at the level of 0.4% in 2011 and at the level of 0.3% next year.

Representative of SNB Mr. Jordan reported earlier that Swiss regulator does not need external guidance on monetary policy, as it is an independent institution and does not intend to receive instructions from business groups and politicians. SNB will continue to take appropriate measures if it is required considering the state of economic forecasts and deflation. According to him, slowdown in economic growth in Switzerland, which had taken place earlier, was caused by high exchange rate of Swiss Franc.

Trade surplus in Switzerland amounted to 1850 billion SHF in September. It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 0.84 points in September against the revised level of 0.80 points in August.  Taking into account that the data reflects the figures of the months when SNB has fixed the rate of the Franc, the index looks very much positive. Producer prices and import prices in Switzerland declined by 0.1% m/m (-2.0% y/y) in September.

Unemployment rate in Switzerland rose to 2.9%, which had been an expected rise from 2.8%. It became known last week that trade balance in Switzerland amounted to 2.15 billion francs in October against the forecast of 2.06 billion francs. The data is good, considering global slump in demand and expensive Franc.