CHF: Swiss Franc is deprived of chances to grow

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate continues to weaken on Thursday morning because yesterday National Bank of Switzerland successfully repelled investors’ attempt to enter into the Franc and to hedge positions in the market.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the positive area, and is moving along the signal line, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9050, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9070 and 0.9090. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

SNB maintains firm position: any Franc’s attempt of being corrected or act as a safe asset is suppressed from the very beginning. Testing of this opinion yesterday has proved once again that this intention is firm. Investors do not cease to talk in the market that SNB can review its position on the key levels and fix exchange rate of the pair EUR/CHF at the level of 1.25.

Meanwhile, no grounds have been found to confirm this rumor.The data released earlier showed unemployment rate in Switzerland remained at the level of 3.0% in July. Statistics released earlier showed that the level of retail sales in Switzerland increased by 7.4% in June against the revised level of -3.9% in May. In addition, index of PMI SVME rose to 53.5 points in July against the forecast of 52.5 points.

The data released yesterday showed that unemployment rate in Switzerland remained at the level of 2.8% in August, the same as in July.  It is good that “long arms” of the Franc has not reached this important sector. Statistics which was made public before this decision showed that Switzerland slides down to deflation: CPI in August fell by 0.3% m/m against the forecast of decline by 0.2% m/m. The data released earlier showed that producer prices and imports prices in Switzerland declined by 0.7% m/m (-0.5% y/y) in July against the fall of 0.6% m/m in June.

In addition, consumer confidence index in Switzerland fell to -17 points in Q3 against the forecast of -5 points.It became known earlier that trade balance in Switzerland amounted to +0.81 billion in August against the forecast of +1.97 billion: influence of the expensive currency and external background is obvious. Volume of industrial production in Switzerland grew by 2.3% y/y in Q2 against the forecast of +2.7% y/y.

According to Swiss National Bank, GDP will amount to 1.5-2% in 2011 (previously it was the level of 2%); inflation will not exceed the level of 0.4% this year. CPI will be at the level of -0.3% next year and +0.5% in 2013. In addition, the CNB also confirmed its intention to buy foreign currency in unlimited volume in order to prevent growth of the Franc.