CHF: Swiss Franc fails to come out of the range
At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate remains in the range of 0.9523-0.9645 on Thursday, not making any attempts to come out of the range, although volume of the trades for the pair is above average.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF, however it continues to go up, confirming a previous buy signal for the pair. Stochastic Oscillator continues to be in the overbought zone, giving a buy signal, and creating conditions for the indicator’s reversal
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9625 the pair will go to 0.9660 and 0.9710. If there is a breakdown at the level of 0.9575, traders’ targets will be the levels of 0.9525 and 0.9500.
The following Swiss data was released today:
– CPI increased by 0.4% m/m, +0.3% y/y in January, against the forecast of -0.2% m/m, +0.6% y/y;
– Consumer confidence SECO in January: 10 against preliminary level of 7.
Inflation rate indicates slowdown of the recovery process in Swiss economy and high rate of the Franc is also a party at fault for it. No official statements have been made yet.
We would remind that statistics on Swiss unemployment rate released yesterday showed that the rate remained at the level of 3.5%. According to the estimates of the State Secretariat of Economic Affairs (SECO), unadjusted unemployment rate amounted to 3.8% last month. Thus, a number of unemployed in Switzerland totaled to 136.542 thousand (earlier: 140.090 thousand). According to UBS study the level of private consumption increased to the level of 1.7% in January, which above the average annual level.
The previous macro-economic statistics was mixed. On the one hand levels of exports in the country increased by 10.9% y/y in December, the index rose mostly due to the demand for watches (export of watches in December: +25.5%, to 1.53 billion francs). At the same time trade surplus (supported by the data mentioned above) rose to 1.3 billion francs in December and levels of import increased by 10.5% y/y (14.2 billion francs).
On the other hand, according to the Research Institute KOF, leading indicator fell to the level of 2.10 against the level of 2.11 in December, which became the fifth consecutive fact of reduction of the indicator. However, the data was still above than the forecast of economists (2.05). Retail sales in December declined by0.4% y/y against +1.8% for the previous period; PMI in the manufacturing sector in January was at the level of 60.5 against 61.2 for the previous period.
