CHF: Swiss Franc continues to move away from local highs

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate almost stays put on Friday morning, however it is obvious that the Franc is moving further away from the historic highs, reached this week.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF and goes down, forming a pair sell signal; while volumes are increasing. Stochastic Oscillator is increasing in the oversold zone, giving a pair sell signal.

Forex forecast: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8420  , the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.8445. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate close to the current levels.
Economic situation remains unchanged in Switzerland.

GDP in Switzerland slowed down growth rate in QI this year, increasing by 0.3% on quarterly basis (+2.4% y/y) against the rise of 0.8% last quarter and the forecast of growth of 0.6 %.

According to estimates of the SNB, the main activator for economic growth in Switzerland is still national consumer demand, triggered by the rise in the demand for houses and health care expenditure, as well as high level of export.

The data released on Tuesday showed that CPI in Switzerland remained unchanged on monthly basis (+0.4% y/y) in May against the forecast of decline by 0.1% m/m (+0.3% y/y).

Julius Baer Group believes that it is not clear yet whether Swiss economy requires the increase in the   interest rate or not: “any rise will have an impact on the economy as a whole for a year”. However it is quite possible that local economy and its recovery process are strong enough to cope with the interest rate rise to 1%-1.5%.

It became known yesterday that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 2.9% in May against the level of 3.1% in April and the forecast of 3.0%. It is positive data for Swiss economy because strong Franc does not prevent cohesive economic growth.

As it became known earlier level of trade balance in Switzerland rose by 1.52 billion in April against the rise of 1.0 billion in March. In addition, exports in Switzerland increased by 7.9% in April against the fall by 3.1% in March. Index of leading indicators KOF in Switzerland rose to 2.30 points in May against the forecast of growth by 2.22 points.

In addition, index of PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 59.2 points against the forecast of 57.5 points. It proves once again that national economy has learnt to be effective even in circumstances where national currency is expensive.

 

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