CHF: Swiss Franc consolidates gradually, aiming at new highs

Swiss Franc rate is traded upward at the Forex currency market on Wednesday, the same as yesterday: Franc demonstrates its protective properties while market is determining further movement direction.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF and continues to decline, maintaining a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is rising slightly in the neutral zone, confirming a pair buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9050 the pair will go to 0.9060 and 0.9090. If the level of 0.9020 is exceeded, traders’ targets will become the levels of 0.9010 and 0.8980.

Statistics released yesterday showed that level of trade balance in Switzerland increased to 2.49 billion francs in February against the value of 2.04 billion francs in January – it is favourable information. In addition, levels of import rose by 0.3% in February; export levels – by 4.2%, +16.53 billion francs.

Therefore, levels of exports in Switzerland are growing even when the Franc is strong, maintaining support for the entire economy
Statistics released earlier showed that volume of industrial output in Switzerland increased by 6.1% y/y in QIV. Before that it became known that index of economic expectations ZEW in Switzerland increased to -13.5 points in March against the previous level of -17.2 points. It is a favourable indication for the local economy.

Swiss National Bank adopted measures of verbal intervention against the Franc last week: representatives of the SNB said following the meeting that strong currency is a hard burden for the economy and its inflated price will trigger a slowdown of  economic growth – largely, due to the decrease of the export volumes.

The level of three-month LIBOR rate was left unchanged, at the 0.25%, as expected.
Statistics previously demonstrated that level of CPI in Switzerland increased by 0.4% m/m (+0.5% y/y) in February against the forecast of growth by 0.3% m/m. Thus, inflation in Switzerland has been increasing slightly so far, which on one hand, indicates economic recovery in the country and on the other hand does not give rise to discussions of the interest rate revision.

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