CHF: Swiss Franc ceased togrow
At the Forex currency market onTuesday Swiss Franc rate in traded almostunchanged in the middle of the week; however growth of the currency has sloweddown.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pairUSD/CHF is going up in the positive area and is shaping a buy signal.Stochastic Oscillator is descending in the neutral zone and is giving a sellsignal.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case ofbreakdown at the level of 0.9145, the pairUSD/CHF will go to 0.9130 ?0.9120. Ir Franc becomes weaker it will lead the pair to 0.9200.
Economic situation in Switzerlandhas not changed significantly currently.
It became known yesterday thattrade balance in Switzerland amounted to 2.15 billion francs in October againstthe forecast of 2.06 billion francs. The data is positive, given global slumpin demand and expensive franc. On Thursday investors' attention will bedrawn to employment data in non-agricultural sector in Q3.
Surplus of trade balance amounted to 1850billion SHF in September. It became known earlier that consumption indicatorUBS in Switzerland rose to 0.84 points in September against the revised levelof 0.80 points in August. Taking into accountthat the data reflects the figures of the months when SNB has fixed the rate ofthe Franc, the index looks very much positive. Producer prices and importprices in Switzerland declined by 0.1% m/m (-2.0% y/y) in September.
Unemployment rate in Switzerlandrose to 2.9%, which had been an expected rise from 2.8%. The data which isgoing to be released this week will show dynamics in the index.
Representative of SNB Mr. Jordanreported earlier that Swiss regulator does not need external guidance onmonetary policy, as it is an independent institution and does not intend toreceive instructions from business groups and politicians. SNB will continue totake appropriate measures if it is required considering the state of economicforecasts and deflation. According to him slowdown in economic growth inSwitzerland, which took place earlier, was caused by high exchange rate ofSwiss Franc.
According estimates of Swiss National Bank,GDP in Switzerland will amount to 1.5%-2.0% this year; main growth will beattributed to the results of the first part of the year. SNB noted in thecomments that if stringent monetary measures had not been taken the economywould have slipped to a recession. SNB expects that inflation will be at thelevel of 0.4% in 2011 and at the level of 0.3% next year.
