AUD: the Australian Dollar tries to resume growth

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate tries to resume growth on Thursday is spite of the rate forecasts.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes down in the negative area and is giving a sell signal; volumes are high. Stochastic Oscillator left the oversold zone and is rising in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: out of market.

Feasible scenario at Forex: in case of breakup at the level of 0.9860, the pair will go to 0.9870 and 0.9895. If the breakup does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

JP Morgan economists revised its opinion on the Australian rate – now they do not await its 25 bps rise in 2012, forecasting the rate to remain at the current levels till the end of the next year. In accompanying comments the economists note that financial markets are too volatile and the risks of economy’s cooling are too big to speak of the rate increase. A fall is commodities prices also plays against Australia.

Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia which were made public last week show, that current levels of the rates correspond to the existing situation, while medium- term outlooks for economic growth continue to be optimistic. Companies are ready to hire employees, which is a positive factor, however the expensive AUD has forced to review business strategies and plans. The minutes look weird, considering that Australian economy suffers huge losses now, due to the decrease in exports levels and particularly for coal.

Leading indicators index Westpac/MI in Australia increased by 1.4% in July, to the level of 284.2 points (+3.1% y/y) versus prior expectations of +2.7%. The AUD neglected this information: there are more influential players on the scene of the currency market. It became known earlier that consumer inflation expectations in Australia rose to 2.8% in September, as per estimates of Melbourne Institute against provisional estimate of 2.7%. This data is of general nature and the AUD did not respond to it; however it is obvious that inflationary pressure will continue to grow.

The macroeconomic situation remains the same by today. No data will be published in Australia till the end of the week, so traders should only hope for some rebound on the back of the external background.