AUD: the Australian Dollar increases energetically

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate increases energetically as soon as positive external background allows the currency to rise. Current Aussie levels are still attractive – but in case the external background worsens, “Bears” will return to the pair very soon.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes down in the negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator left the oversold zone and is rising in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakup at the level of 0.9960, the pair will go to 0.9970 and 0.9995. If the breakup does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

The macroeconomic situation remains the same by today. No data will be published in Australia till the end of the week, so traders should only hope for some rebound on the back of the external background.

Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia which were made public last week show, that current levels of the rates correspond to the existing situation, while medium- term outlooks for economic growth continue to be optimistic. Companies are ready to hire employees, which is a positive factor, however the expensive AUD has forced to review business strategies and plans. The minutes look weird, considering that Australian economy suffers huge losses now, due to the decrease in exports levels and particularly for coal.

The data released previously showed that consumer confidence Westpac in Australia rose by 8.1% m/m in September, reaching the level of 96.9 points. Index of business conditions NAB in Australia fell by 3 points in August against the level of -1 point in July. The index declined to the lowest level since April 2009, indicating recession in the sentiments and prospects. National Australian Bank Ltd, noted commenting these result, that it reflects increased level of uneasiness and concern about further expansion of the debt crisis.

Still the increase is correctional and it’s too early to speak of the about-turn. One should note that the Australian economy does not provide any pretext for technical rebound – the external background is the only hope.