At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to be sold on Friday amid risk aversion.

 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes down in the negative area and is giving a sell signal; volumes are high. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone, giving the same signal.

 

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9730, the pair will go to 0.9710 and 0.9695. If the breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

 

According to the statistics released today, Private sector credit in Australia totaled +0.2% m/m in August against +0.3% m/m in July. This became another reason for the Aussie selloff.

 

Leading indicators index Westpac/MI in Australia increased by 1.4% in July, to the level of 284.2 points (+3.1% y/y) versus prior expectations of +2.7%. It became known earlier that consumer inflation expectations in Australia rose to 2.8% in September, as per estimates of Melbourne Institute against provisional estimate of 2.7%.

 

Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia which were made public last week show, that current levels of the rates correspond to the existing situation, while medium- term outlooks for economic growth continue to be optimistic. Companies are ready to hire employees, which is a positive factor, however the expensive AUD has forced to review business strategies and plans. The minutes look weird, considering that Australian economy suffers huge losses now, due to the decrease in exports levels and particularly for coal.

 

JP Morgan economists revised its opinion on the Australian rate – now they do not await its 25 bps rise in 2012, forecasting the rate to remain at the current levels till the end of the next year. In accompanying comments the economists note that financial markets are too volatile and the risks of economy’s cooling are too big to speak of the rate increase. A fall is commodities prices also plays against Australia.