AUD: Sale of Australian Dollar continues at moderate pace
The Australian Dollar rate continues to decline moderately at the Forex currency market on Tuesday as investors’ sentiments are not too cheerful at the global capital markets.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and is moving along the signal line, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is moving in a similar way in the neutral zone.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0300, the pair will go to 1.0290 and 1.0270. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.
Sales of the AUD have been observed for the third consecutive session; however the volume of sales is not too big. Perhaps, some investors held wait and see attitude to see some certainty in the global economy.
Statistics could not help the situation, as it showed that business confidence NAB in Australia rose to 2 points in October against preliminary level of -1 points. According to NAB, the growth has been triggered by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to soften monetary policy in the future.
This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced lowering in the interest rate up to 4.50% per annum, by 25 basis points which in general, agreed with expectations. In the follow-up comments the RBA noted that now inflation is being curbed with the help of the high rate of the currency and low demand of population; regulator expects that in 2012 inflation will be at the level of 2-3%. The Bank also recorded deterioration of the conditions in the labour market and decrease in prices for the raw materials. Concerns about developments in Eurozone are still high, and it seems that growth rate of the national economy is going to be moderate. According to RBA, lending rates are now slightly higher than the average level, despite softening of general conditions. It also worth noting, that RBA hinted at further lowering of the rates if general conditions do not improve.
It is interesting that business confidence NAB in Q3 amounted to -4 points in Q3; while the index had been at the level of +5 points in Q2. According to estimates of the observers, the level of employment, sales and corporate profit in the country has dropped considerably.
According to the data released earlier, consumer confidence WESTPAC in Australia rose by 0.4% m/m, to the level of 97.2 points in October. Monetary politician, Mr. Evans pointed to a chance that the rate might go down in November, since low growth of the index indicates general pessimistic sentiment.
It became known at the beginning of the week, productivity index in the construction sector of Australia rose to 34.7 points in October against 30.0 points in September. However, the AUD has not responded to statistics, because external background remains mixed and investors’ trading sentiment are close to consolidation.
