AUD: Nothing prevents Australian Dollar from sales

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to be at the gunpoint of traders, despite activity of the local authorities.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and continues to go down, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is also descending, giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the local lows, traders’ targets will be the levels of 0.9880 and 0.9820/10.

Is it was noted by the representatives of the Bank of Australia today, economy of the country has been growing almost at the level of trend, and current moderately restrictive fiscal policy fits the external situation. 

In addition, according to the RBA there is shortage of cash in Australia now in the amount of ?$1.437 billion

The major catalyst for sales of the AUD is investors’ risk aversion caused by the events in Japan. The situation for the Australian Dollar remains negative. Statistics released last week showed that level of PPI in China increased by 0.8% m/m (+7.2% y/y) in February against the growth by 0.9% m/m a month earlier. Industrial output in China increased by 14.9% y/y in February; on the other hand, level of CPI in China rose by 1.2% m/m (+4.9% y/y) in February against the growth by 1.0% m/m in January. China is the major trading partner of Australia and slowdown in the economy of China will have a negative impact on the Green Continent. 

Interest rate is at the level of 4.75% per annum in Australia now. The meetings of RBA in 2011 will be held on 4 April, 2 May, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.

Statistics released last Tuesday showed that index of business confidence increased to 14 points in February, as per NAB estimates, against the previous 4 points. Thus, after the flood in the state of Queensland earlier this year the level of business confidence has begun to recover.

However, it should be taken into consideration that retail sector, manufacturing industry and construction sector are in the difficult situation, while sectors of recreation and mining industry have been successfully recovering. Actually, the Australian economy has slowed down – which has been confirmed by statistics and this factor is negative for the AUD.

 

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