AUD: Growth of Australian Dollar was caused by the interest to risk

At the Forex currency market on Monday, the Australian Dollar rate growth amid revival of interest in risky positions among investors. For the time being growth of the AUD is limited because investors’ are still wary of any comments of the monetary authorities.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator remains in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD, and is growing and is giving a buy signal, while volumes are below average. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone, giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0615, the pair will go to 1.0630 and 1.0650. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will stay close to the current levels.

External environment is still determinative for the AUD and the lack of volumes in the pair indicates that investors have adopted wait and see position.

As it became known today sales in the primary housing market of Australia fell by 8.0% m/m in July against the decline of 8.7% m/m a month earlier. Presently, it looks more like stabilization of the situation, than a tendency for improvement in the indicator.

According to the Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia which was made public earlier, leading economic indicators demonstrated moderate increase in employment, and if the world financial turmoil would continue, it could become a factor of pressure on household spending and sentiments in the business circles, which in its turn, would have a negative impact on the general projections of the Central Bank. In addition, the document says that high exchange rate of the AUD and low level of households demand has a restrictive effect on inflation. Among other things at the last meeting, arguments in favour of the rate increase were suppressed by the downside risks to demand and high level of tension at the global financial sector.

It became known earlier that price index for corporate services in Australia remains unchanged on monthly basis, -0.5% y/y in July against the level of -0.8% y/y in June. In addition, index of leading indicators Conference Board in Australia fell to -0.8% in June; while a month earlier it had amounted to -0.1%.

Index of leading indicators Westpac in Australia increased by 0.2% m/m (+1.6% y/y) in June against the growth of 3.0% y/y in May. However, the rate of decline in the index is minimal, considering that the index has been steadily decreasing since 2010. This index indicates prospects for economic activity for the next 3-9 months and judging by its dynamics, rapid growth can be hardly expected.

 

 
 

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