AUD: Australian Dollars going downward again

At the Forex currency marketthe Australian Dollar rate is back to decline on Monday morning, as externalbackground does not presuppose purchases.

Forex forecast: MACD indicatoris in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD, goes down and is crossing the signal line from top to bottom, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillatorgoes down in the neutral zone giving a sell signal and approaching oversoldzone.

Forex recommendations: in caseof breakdown at the level of 1.0500, the pair will go to 1.0470 and 1.0450. Ifdownward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at thecurrent levels.

The situation in the Australianeconomy remains almost unchanged this morning.

The head of RBA Mr. Stevenssaid earlier, that updated statistics will be available at the end of July;policy evaluation will be based on it. According to him, eventually, at somepoint, the rise in the interest rate will become a necessity to control prices,however at the last meeting the level required to raise interest rate has notbeen reached.

Thus, the Reserve Bank ofAustralia has confirmed its previous hawk opinion, despite the interval in theinterest rate rise which has lasted for 6 sessions.

At the same time the RBA doesnot worry about high rate of the AUD, on the contrary, Stevens noted thatexpensive AUD promotes economic adjustment. It is worth noting that the RBAintends to pursue preemptive tactic, therefore, the rates can be raised beforeautumn.

The Reserve Bank of Australialeft interest rate at the previous level of 4.75% per annum and stressed thatcurrent course of policy is quite acceptable, which triggered sales of the AUDbecause it might mean that monetary policy tightening will continue to besuspended in the next few months.

According to the data releasedlast week, consumer confidence index Westpac in Australia fell by 2.6% m/m, to101.2 points in June against preliminary forecast of decline by 1.3%, to 103.9points. In addition, a number of begun construction in Australia increased by3.1% q/q in Q1, while the forecast had been -0.6%. It became known earlier thatinflation expectations in Australia in June remained at the May level at 3.3%.

As it was announced earlierinflation in Australia increased by 0.2% m/m (+3.3% y/y), as per TD Securitiesestimates. It is the weighted average inflation index which is a guideline indecision making for the Bank of Australia, and it is slowing down its growthrate now (in April: +0.3% m/m), indicating that prospects of the increase inthe interest rate in the coming months are slipping away.