AUD: Australian Dollar tries to recover after sale

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is recovering on Wednesday after the selling rally on Tuesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD, however it goes down slowly, confirming a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal on Wednesday, being in the neutral zone.

Forex recommendations: in case of favourable external background the pair can rise to 1.0075, at the same time aggressive sellers can be back at the market, whose targets can become the levels of 1.0025 ? 1.0000.

As became known today, index of labor cost in Australia rose by 1.0% on quarterly basis (+3.9% y/y) in QIV.

The data released yesterday showed that the level of business confidence in Australia declined by 5 points in QIV against the level of 9 points earlier. However the pressure from external background is getting stronger and the currency is being sold, due to investors’ withdrawal from risks.

No important publications is expected this week, therefore, external background will become the main activator for the pair. Situation in the Australian economy remains unchanged. The AUD is still afloat due to the overall optimism; however medium term trend for the currency seems downward. 

Earlier the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens noted that he expected stabilization of the national economy, due to which, interest rate would remain unchanged for some time. He also said that economic growth of the Australian economy could be better, than the forecast, despite negative impact of the natural disaster that befell on the country at the beginning of the year. At the same time Stevens believes in the support from strong economies of India, China, the USA, and risks – from the European economies.

According to HSBC observers, the speech of the RBA governor did not contain any fresh news for the market: Central Bank is satisfied with the pace of economy and mining sector seems to be an activator for the recovery. It is not excluded that discussions about the rate increase will start as soon as the regulator gets familiarized with the CPI index for the QI.

 

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