AUD: Australian Dollar tries to grow
At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is traded rather sluggishly however it tries to grow, following market and raw materials trends.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD however it is going up, giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic oscillator has not formed a clear signal today, being in the overbought zone.
Forex recommendations: if the pair breaks down at the level of 0.9700, buyers’ targets will be the levels of 0.9770 and 0.9800.
The following Australian data was released today:
– Retail sales in October: -1.1% m/m against +0.1% in September;
– Trade balance surplus in October: $2.625 billion;
– Export in October: +1% m/m to $24.32 billion;
– Import in October: -3% m/m to $21.70 billion.
It is obvious that the AUD in under strong pressure caused by the reduction of the retail sales – amid so weak statistics, a statement made by the head of the RBA Mr. Stevens that everything is great in the economy, looks at least untenable.
It became known yesterday that GDP in Australia increased by 0.2% on quarterly basis; while analytics had expected the rise by 0.5%. The growth over last quarter positioned as the lowest over the last two years, therefore GDP dynamics seems to be descending.
At the same time the Australian Dollar rate can resume the decline in the medium term because investors’ concern about problems in Eurozone is still strong and the Euro is still too weak. The AUD has “lost weight” by 3.6% last week in pairing with the USD.
It became known earlier that current account balance amounted to -?$7.83 billion in QIII against the forecast of -?$6.60 billion. All these factors will buck against the AUD.
The level of capital expenditures in Australia increased by 6.2% on quarterly basis in QIII as per Capex estimations against the previous reduction by 4%. Economists’ forecast amounted to +3.1%, which confirmed high level of confidence to the Australian economy.
However the data released earlier was not so unambiguous – index of leading indicators CB reduced by 0.1% n September against +0.2% in August; volume of completed construction in QIII declined by 2.1% against the forecast of growth by 2.0%. Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.75% now.
