AUD: Australian Dollar tries to grow, signals are contradictory, however

The Australian Dollar rate is traded upward at the Forex currency market on Wednesday; however, keeping in mind weakness of the currency in the moments when external background deteriorates, it is necessary to be carefull, especially knowing that signals are contradictory.     

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD after crossing with the signal line, it is moving down, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a pair buy signal today, being n the neutral zone.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0000 the pair will go to 1.0050 and 1.0095. If a breakdown will not take place, the pair will continue to consolidate close to the current levels.

Statistics on the Australian economy was not published this morning, so currency pair is guided by external background; which remains ambiguous in advance of the U.S. Federal reserve meeting.

Collapse of the AUD yesterday proved our theory about generall weakness of the AUD once again.  After the release of the data on the consumer prices index in QIV (+0.4% q/q (+2.7% y/y) against the forecast of +0.7% q/q), traders felt disappointed and the AUD went down.

As it became known on Monday morning, PPI index in Australia increased by 0.1% on quarterly basis (+2.7% y/y) in QIV. Earlier statistics was multifarious. Thus, import and export prices in Australia fell by 8.1% and 3.8% respectively. However, level of consumer confidence in Australia is estimated not so unequivocally; according to ANZ, consumer confidence in Australia amounted to 117 points in January against the level of 112.2 n December. It is interesting that, as per official data, index of consumer sentiment in Australia fell by 5.7% in January against the growth by 0.2% in December, mostly due to the flooding in the country.

The meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled for 31 January and market will carefully wait for the comments of the RBA head, as the AUD future will depend on them in the short term.  Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.75% per annum.

RBA meetings in 2011 are scheduled for: 31 January, 28 February, 4 April, 2 may, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.

Note, that despite complicated situation in the Australian economy due to the flooding authorities of the country face the future with optimism: according to Minister of Finance of the country Mr. Swan, CPI will show increase in QI of this year due to the growing dynamics of prices for food. Observers believe that economic consequences of the flooding in the Green Continent have already been noticeable in the results of the current quarter.

 

 

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