AUD: Australian Dollar tested a new high at the beginning of the week

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate tested a new 28-year high on Monday – 1.0418 – and began a correction movement on RBA meeting started today.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and continues rising, maintaining a previous buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator today stays in the overbought zone.

Forex recommendations: if bullish sentiment for the pair AUD/USD remains intact the level of 1.0418 may be exceeded today. Still there is high possibility of consolidation at current levels and slight correction after 12 consecutive days of growth.

The calm sentiment of monetary officials in Australia is amazing – no one of them held a speech for the last two weeks in spite of weak macro-statistics.

Still markets will take interest in comments of RBA officials about future rate and economic perspectives during the 2-days meeting. Interest rate decision will become known tomorrow morning (forecast – unchanged at the current level of 4.75% per annum).

As it became known today, ANZ Job Advertisements in Australia increased by 1.3% in March – more than growth by 1.1% seen in February. March data on labour market will be of interest assisting to distinguish whether it is a trend in the sector. This will give strong support to aussie.

Still January data remains topical: the leading indicator CB increased by 0.1% in January against the growth by 0.7% in December. It is the best indication for the medium term outlook of Australian economy; although it seems that external background overbalances this information. The data released earlier showed that leading indicators Westpac fell by 0.1% m/m in January while the forecast had been +0.8% m/m. It is a moderately negative sign for the Australian economy.

The meetings of RBA in 2011 will be held on 4 April, 2 May, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.
Still regulator’s respond to the current economic situation is at the centre of markets’ attention.

 

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