AUD: Australian Dollar tends to recover in the mid-week

The Australian Dollar rate is traded upward at the Forex currency market on Wednesday following the recovery of the major currency pair after a steep drop earlier. Investors nevertheless continue to ignore macro-economic indicators.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD, however it goes up giving grounds for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9700 and if traders’ positive sentiments are maintained, traders’ targets will be the levels of 0.9770 and 0.9800.

It became known today that GDP in Australia increased by 0.2% on quarterly basis; while analytics has expected the rise by 0.5%. The growth over last quarter positioned as the lowest over the last two years, therefore GDP dynamics seems to be descending. At the same time the Australian Dollar rate can resume the decline in the medium term because investors’ concern about problems in Eurozone is still strong and the Euro is still too weak. The AUD has become “lost weight” by 3.6% last week in pairing with the USD. It became known yesterday that current account balance amounted to -?$7.83 billion in QIII against the forecast of -?$6.60 billion. All these factors will buck against the AUD.

The level of capital expenditures in Australia increased by 6.2% on quarterly basis in QIII as per Capex estimations against the previous reduction by 4%. Economists’ forecast amounted to +3.1%, which confirmed high level of confidence to the Australian economy.
However the data released earlier was not so unambiguous – index of leading indicators CB reduced by 0.1% n September against +0.2% in August; volume of completed construction in QIII declined by 2.1% against the forecast of growth by 2.0%.

Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.75%. According to the average forecast of economists and analytics the RBA is unlikely to raise interest rate before QIV of 2011. Earlier Australian Minister of Finance updated budget forecast. Thus, GDP in 2011 is expected to be at the level of 3.5% (growth), in 2012 – 3.75% (unchanged). Net debt will amount to 6.4% by 2012. As for the employment sector- unemployment rate is expected to be at the level of 4.75% in 2011 and at the level of 4.5% in 2012.

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