AUD: Australian Dollar tends to decline from the weeks highs

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate goes down on Monday after the rise last week.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD and it is going down, giving grounds for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has reached overbought area and has not formed a clear signal yet.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9930 the pair will go to 1.0000 and 1.0060. If the level of 0.9870 is exceeded, traders’ targets will be the levels of 0.9830 and 0.9770.

It became known today that number of vacancies (ANZ) in Australia increased by 2.9% m/m in November against the level of +0.7% m/m in October.
GDP in Australia increased by 0.2% on quarterly basis in QIII; while analytics had expected the rise by 0.5%; the growth over last quarter positioned as the lowest over the last two years, therefore GDP dynamics seems to be descending. However, the Australian Dollar rate can resume the decline in the medium term because investors’ concern about problems in Eurozone is still strong and the Euro is still too weak.

The situation in Australia seems stable – it is not expected that the interest rate will be increased in the nearest future, since economic growth rate has slowed down in the second half of 2010; The RBA stressed on Friday that the rate will be reviewed not earlier than in May next year (earlier the growth had been expected in February).  Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.75% now.

As it became known earlier retail sales in October amounted to-1.1% m/m against +0.1% in September and trade balance surplus in October was $2.625 billion. It also became known earlier that current account balance amounted to -?$7.83 billion in QIII against the forecast of -?$6.60 billion. All these factors will buck against the AUD.

The level of capital expenditures in Australia increased by 6.2% on quarterly basis in QIII as per Capex estimations against the previous reduction by 4%. Economists’ forecast amounted to +3.1%, which confirmed high level of confidence to the Australian economy.

However the data released earlier was not so unambiguous – index of leading indicators CB reduced by 0.1% n September against +0.2% in August; volume of completed construction in QIII declined by 2.1% against the forecast of growth by 2.0%.

 

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