AUD: Australian Dollar started this week in low spirits

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate started todecline moderately at the beginning of the week,external signals are mixed onMonday, which affects dynamics of the high risky currencies.

Forexforecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the negative area and is going up, whilevolumes are low, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is ready to moveaway from overbought zone, shaping a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: : in case of breakdown atthe level of 1.0230,the pair will go to 1.0210 and 1.0200. As part of rebound, the pair can reach thelevel of 1.0280.

It became known today that inflation TD-MI inAustralia decreased by 0.1% m/m (+2.1% y/y) in November against the forecast ofgrowth of 0.1% m/m. The AUD reacted discreetly to the news.

A meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australiawill be held this week; changes in the interest rates are not expected.Comments of the RBA about the impact of the European crisis on the economy ofthe country in general will be of interest. The head of the Reserve Bank ofAustralia Mr. Stevens stressed earlier that Europe and its leaders have tohurry up to resolve their problems. According to export statistics, Australiaand its economy is seriously affected by the slump in global demand.

Financial situation in the country isambiguous: previous statistics showed that lending in the private sector ofAustralia increased by 0.2% m/m (+3.5% y/y) in October against the forecast ofgrowth of 0.4% m/m. Previous block of statistics demonstrated that leadingindicators index CB in Australia increased by 0.1% m/m in September against aprevious decline of 0.2% m/m. Corporate profit and exports of agriculturalproducts were among the main drivers of the increase in the index. Newstatistics does not cancel downward pressure, and the main reason for this wascaused by changes in prices for securities at the stock market.

It became known earlier that Australianauthorities have revised forecast of GDP growth downward, to 3.5% in 2012. Previously, forecast had been at 3.75%

Retail sales in Australia increased to theminimum value of +0.2% m/m over 4 months in October. In September the indexrose by 0.4%, and by 0.6% in August. This data upset investors who areconcerned that such precarious balance in the economy can be disturbed. Lastweek, rating agency Fitch upgraded rating of Australia's obligations inforeign currency to the level of AAA from the previous notch AA+, due to positiverevision public debts levels, which are now slightly above 26%.