AUD: Australian Dollar slips steadily downward
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD hasbroken through the signal line from top to bottom and is still traded in thenegative area, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in theoversold zone and is giving a similar signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat the level of 0.9760, the pair will go to 0.9750and 0.9730. Ifdownward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at thecurrent levels.
The data released today showedthat leading indicators index CB in Australia increased by 0.1% m/m inSeptember against previous decline of 0.2% m/m. Corporate profit and exportsof agricultural products were among the main drivers of the increase in theindex. New statistics does not cancel downward pressure, and the main reasonfor this was caused by changes in prices for securities at the stock market.
The AUD has ignored thisstatistics.
Minutes of the last meeting ofthe Reserve Bank of Australia were released last week. According to thedocument, RBA expects that in the next two years dynamics of thecountry's GDP will be close to the trend; at the same time regulatornoted that latest statistics had improved slightly. Slowdown of the Chineseeconomy naturally affected the growth rate of the Australian economy andinflation in Australia probably has reached its peak. According to RBA, declinein market rates enables to maintain discount rate unchanged, while high risksof deceleration in Australian economy, which can be caused by recession inEurope, are still preserved.
Unemployment rate in Australia decreased to5.2% in October against 5.3% a month earlier. Business confidence NAB increasedto 2 points in October against preliminary level of -1 points. According toNAB, the growth has been triggered by expectations that the Reserve Bank ofAustralia will continue to soften monetary policy in the future. It isinteresting that business confidence NAB in Q3 amounted to -4 points in Q3;while the index had been at the level of +5 points in Q2. According toestimates of the observers, the level of employment, sales and corporate profitin the country has dropped considerably.
According to statistics releasedearlier, index of leading indicators Westpac in Australia fell by 0.3% m/m inSeptember against 0.8% m/m a month earlier. It is not surprising if we takeinto to account strong influence of the situation in Eurozone and China on theAustralian economy. According to statistics released earlier, consumersentiments Westpac in Australia increased by 6.3% m/m in November, to the levelof 103.4 points. According to the monetary politician Evans the level of theindicator has been at the highs since May 2011 which shall not prevent RBA fromlowering the rate once again at the meeting in February. The Australian Dollaris still in a shaky position, since demand for high yield currencies isminimal. Situation in Europe is far from ideal; therefore, as long as turbulenceat the trading floors is not subsided there will not be any craving for risk.
