AUD: Australian Dollar remains in the sideway channel
The Australian Dollar rate is traded slightly downward at the Forex currency market on Wednesday, at the moment, current pattern is identical to what we had yesterday.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and is moving along the signal line, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is moving in the neutral zone and is growing, giving a buy signal.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0300, the pair will go to 1.0300 and 1.0290. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.
It became known today that consumer sentiment WESTPAC in Australia increased by 6.3% m/m in November, to the level of 103.4 points. According to monetary politician Evans, indicator is now at the highest level since May 2011, however this shall not stop RBA from lowering the rate again at the meeting in February.
Statistics could not help the situation with AUD, as it showed that business confidence NAB in Australia rose to 2 points in October against preliminary level of -1 points. According to NAB, the growth has been triggered by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to soften monetary policy in the future.
It is interesting that business confidence NAB in Q3 amounted to -4 points in Q3; while the index had been at the level of +5 points in Q2. According to estimates of the observers, the level of employment, sales and corporate profit in the country has dropped considerably.
As it became known earlier this week, productivity index in the construction sector of Australia rose to 34.7 points in October against 30.0 points in September. However, the AUD has not responded to statistics, because external background remains mixed and investors’ trading sentiment are close to consolidation.
We would remind that last week the Reserve Bank of Australia announced lowering in the interest rate up to 4.50% per annum, by 25 basis points which in general, agreed with expectations. In the follow-up comments the RBA noted that now inflation is being curbed with the help of the high rate of the currency and low demand of population; regulator expects that in 2012 inflation will be at the level of 2-3%. The Bank also recorded deterioration of the conditions in the labour market and decrease in prices for the raw materials. Concerns about developments in Eurozone are still high, and it seems that growth rate of the national economy is going to be moderate. According to RBA, lending rates are now slightly higher than the average level, despite softening of general conditions. It also worth noting, that RBA hinted at further lowering of the rates if general conditions do not improve.
