AUD: Australian Dollar remains close to high levels

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is traded slightly downward on Thursday –correction that started this morning did not develop transforming into sluggish growth in the afternoon.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD, however it is moving along the signal line and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator stays in the overbought zone, maintaining a pair buy signal and creating prerequisites for the trend reversal.  

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0130 the pair will go to 1.0145/50 and1.0170. If the level of 1.0100 is exceeded, traders’ targets will be the levels of 1.0090 and 1.0050.

The Australian data released this morning was weak – leading indicator CB increased by 0.1% in January against the growth by 0.7% in December. It is not too good for the medium term outlook of Australian economy.

The data released earlier showed that leading indicators Westpac fell by 0.1% m/m in January while the forecast had been +0.8% m/m. It is a moderately negative sign for the Australian economy.

Representatives of the Bank of Australia noted earlier that economy of the country has been growing almost at the level of trend, and current moderately restrictive fiscal policy fits the external situation. 

Interest rate is at the level of 4.75% per annum in Australia now. The meetings of RBA in 2011 will be held on 4 April, 2 May, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.  

Note, as it became known earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia sold ?$414 billion in the market in February – the action was aimed at weakening the position of the AUD, says the RBA monthly bulletin. In addition the RBA bought ?$464 billion from foreign banks in February. No important Australian macro-economic statistics is going to be published this week; therefore movement direction will be determined by external background and domestic news for the pair AUD/USD. There are conditions now for the technical rollback in the pair.

[More]