AUD: Australian Dollar rate goes further away from the many years highs
At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to decrease without support from oil prices and external background.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD and continues to decline, confirming the previous sell signal for the pair.
Stochastic oscillator is giving a similar signal today, being in the oversold zone.
Forex recommendations: traders' targets today will be the levels of 0.9680 and 0.9650.
The following Australian data was released today:
- Index of leading indicators is 0.0% m/m in September;
- Index of wages price is 1.1% q/q in QIII.
The Australian Minister of Finance updated budget forecast this week. Thus, GDP in 2011 is expected to be at the level of 3.5% (growth), in 2012 - 3.75% (unchanged). Net debt will amount to 6.4% by 2012. At that, new budget deficit will be higher by 41.5 billion AUD in 2010-2011. As for the employment sector: unemployment rate is expected to be at the level of 4.75% in 2011 and at the level of 4.5% in 2012.
The minutes of the RBA last meeting in November was released yesterday. At that meeting on 2 November interest rate was unexpectedly raised. The
document noted that interest rate was raised in order to facilitate the curb in the inflation rise, as mass investments in the mining sector, together with the increase in the employment sector supported the recovery of the national economy. The minutes of meeting emphasized that the balance of risks has shifted and in the current spectrum moderate tightening of the monetary policy seems reasonable.
"If we consider monetary policy in a long run, such progress of situation means that there were reasons to raise interest rate. The trend of the constant rise in inflation will most likely remain relevant in the medium term" - said the document. Market believes that the RBA is unlikely to raise interest rate before QIV of 2011. Current level of the interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.75% per annum.
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