AUD: Australian Dollar is waiting for support to strengthen

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is traded with the minimum increase today because external background remains ambiguous.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the negative area and is going up steadily, giving a buy signal; however volumes are minimal. Stochastic has left overbought   zone, and is giving a start to a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0240, the pair will go to 1.0250 and 1.0260.  If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

Macro-economic situation in Australia is neutral this morning.

According to the data released earlier consumer confidence WESTPAC in Australia rose by 0.4% m/m, to the level of 97.2 points in October. As noted by monetary politician Evans it is possible that the rate will go down in November, since low growth of the index indicates general pessimistic sentiment.

At the last regular meeting the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.75% per annum. Thus, the pause in the process of monetary tightening policy of the RBA has been lasting for 11 months. In the follow-up comments the regulator said that monetary policy can mitigate in the future if inflation requires it. The follow-up statement said that more time can be required to analyze the impact of turbulence in the markets. Apparently, the rate of the RBA is unlikely to be raised until the first quarter of 2012.

Unemployment rate in Australia declined to 5.2% in September versus the level of 5.3% in August. This data demonstrated dynamics for the first time since this March. Employment rate rose by 20.4 thousand last month, while analytics expected the growth of not more than 10 thousand. As noted in the Bureau of Statistics in Sydney, coal mining companies hire staff to meet demand for raw materials from China and India.

Business confidence NAB in Q3 amounted -4 points while in Q2 the index had been at the level of +5 points. According to observers’ estimates the level of employment, sales and corporate profit in the country has dropped considerable.

Business conditions in the three- month term amounted +5 points against +10 points previously and amounted to level of +18 points on annual basis against prior +27 points.

Sharp decline in the indicator, kicked off a quarter earlier, is still going on.