AUD: Australian Dollar is still close to the highs of the week

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to show disposition to grow.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD; it goes up and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is increasing in the neutral zone, giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0850 the pair will go to 1.0870 and 1.0890.

If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate close o the current levels.It became known today that import price index in Australia rose by 0.8% in Q2 against the forecast of -1.1%. At the same time, export price increased by 6.0% in Q2 against the forecast of +4.5%.Growth in exports last quarter was attributed largely due to the rise in exports of lubricants, mineral oil and also related materials.It was made public this week that business confidence NAB in Australia amounted to +6 points in Q2 against the prior value of +11 points.

At the same time index of current conditions rose by 3 points against preliminary +2 points and assessment of business conditions in the three-month term increased by 10 points (forecast had been the growth of 15 points). According to the NAB estimates the gap between strong and weak sectors of Australia is reaching historic maximum and reminds of the situation in 2000 when slowdown occurred in the weak links of the economic chain.It is worth noting that business conditions index in Australia increased by 2 points in July, as per NAB estimates, against zero value in May. At the same time, business confidence index NAB amounted to 0 points against the level of +6 points in May, and GDP forecast for the fiscal year of 2011-2012 had been reduced to 1.7%.

At the last meeting two weeks ago, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave interest rate at previous level of 4.75% per annum and according to the regulator, moderately restrictive monetary policy is consistent with the actual situation.  According to the RBA, the base rate will rise very gradually and economic growth in 2011 will be worse than expected. As it became known earlier leading indicator in Australia fell by 0.3 points in June, to the level of 279.5 points, as per Westpac estimates. Market did not respond to the statistics, awaiting more serious external signals. 

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