AUD: Australian Dollar is in a sale
At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate goes down on Friday – there was a strong signal for the currency sale, which was intensified by the external background.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD and it goes down, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal, being in the oversold zone.
Forex recommendations: traders’ targets today will be the levels of 0.9610 and 0.9580.
The head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens stressed this morning that GDP growth in 2011 and 2012 amounted to about 3.5%. At the same time he foresees the risks of overheating in Asian economy; therefore it is urgently required to reduce growth rate.
The politician clarified that world economic growth in his opinion, will exceed 4% this year and current policy of Australia in the field of credit and monetary relations is quite adequate so far.
The AUD’s response to Stevens’ statement was inactive.
The level of capital expenditures in Australia increased by 6.2% on quarterly basis in QIII as per Capex estimations against the previous reduction by 4%. Economists’ forecast amounted to +3.1%, which confirmed high level of confidence to the Australian economy.
However the data released on Wednesday is ambiguous – index of leading indicators CB reduced by 0.1% n September against +0.2% in August; volume of completed construction in QIII declined by 2.1% against the forecast of growth by 2.0%.
According to the average forecast of economists and analytics the RBA is unlikely to raise interest rate before QIV of 2011. Current level of the interest rate is 4.75% per annum. The Australian Minister of Finance updated its budget forecast this week. Thus, GDP in 2011 is expected to be at the level of 3.5% (growth), in 2012 – 3.75% (unchanged). Net debt will amount to 6.4% by 2012. As for the employment sector- unemployment rate is expected to be at the level of 4.75% in 2011 and at the level of 4.5% in 2012.
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