AUD: Australian Dollar is being corrected from the highs

The Australian dollar rate is being corrected from the highs of 28 years at the Forex currency market on Tuesday. Significant overbought of the pair  AUD/USD is a good precondition for the technical pullback.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and goes upward; volumes remain high for the indicator which maintains a buy signal for the pair. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone today, giving a pair sell signal. 

Forex recommendations: if sales intensify the target will become the levels of 1.0420 and 1.0390.

This morning Finance Minister of Australia Mr Swan said that Australian economy is positive and will only benefit from economic growth of the developing countries. According to him, although IMF has revised GDP forecast downward for Australia, country’s economy continues to recover.
Note that IMF research showed that GDP forecast for Australia had been reduced to 3% in 2011 against the previous level of 3.5%. Floods in January partly impacted the revision of the forecast.

Following the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia last week it was decided to keep current level of the interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.75% per annum – thus, it is the fourth time already when the RBA does not dare to continue monetary policy tightening. The decision had been anticipated and did not provoke any reaction in the market.

The meetings of the RBA will be held on 2 May, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 31 October, 5 December.
Macro-economic environment remains mixed in Australia. On the one hand unemployment rate reduced to 4.9% in March versus the prior level of 5.0% and employment rate rose by 37.8 thousand last month against the forecast of increase by 24 thousand. Therefore, strong performance in the employment sector pushed the AUD to go upward, instilling investors with the idea that the RBA can resume monetary tightening policy earlier.

On the other hand deficit of trade balance was recorded in the country for the first time since spring 2010 (February -?$205 billion against +A$1.4 billion in January). In addition activity index in the service sector reduced to 46.5 points in March against the value of 48.7 points in February.

As it became known earlier lending in the housing sector fell by 5.6% m/m in February against the decline by 4.5% in January; according to the observers’ estimates the index collapsed due to the floods in the beginning of the year in Australia.

 
 

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