AUD: Australian Dollar is approaching parity

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to grow on Tuesday – although if at the Asian session the currency tried to adjust, in the middle of the day the AUD continues to go up steadily.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area and continues to go up, confirming a previous buy signal for the pair. Stochastic Oscillator has come up to the overbought zone today; however it has not identified a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: if current external background is maintained and in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9970, buyers’ targets will be the levels of 1.0000 and 1.0025.

The situation in the housing sector still remains complicated in Australia in QIII – as the data today showed number of new houses’ foundations declined by 13.2% on quarterly basis against preliminary data of +0.8% and previous index of +2.1%.

Market expected to see reduction by 5%.

Last week a regular meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was held, where the regulator decided to keep current interest rate unchanged, at the level of 4.75% per annum. In general it agreed with the market expectations.

GDP in Australia increased by 0.2% on quarterly basis in QIII; while analytics had expected the rise by 0.5%; the growth over last quarter positioned as the lowest over the last two years, therefore GDP dynamics seems to be descending. However, the Australian Dollar rate can resume the decline in the medium term because investors’ concern about problems in Eurozone is still strong and the Euro is still too weak.

It became known earlier that retail sales in October amounted to-1.1% m/m against +0.1% in September and trade balance surplus in October was $2.625 billion. It also became known earlier that current account balance amounted to -?$7.83 billion in QIII against the forecast of -?$6.60 billion.

However the data released later outbalanced existing negativism. Employment rate in Australia demonstrates vigorous growth which is a clear indication of a good recovery rate of the domestic economy. According to the data released today employment rate rose by 54.6 thousand jobs in November; while unemployment rate declined to the level of 5.2% against the previous level of 5.4%.

The situation in Australia may have an impact caused by the negative factor from New Zealand where authorities brought down GDP forecast for the next fiscal year.

 

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