AUD: Australian Dollar holds positions near many-year highs

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate stands near many-year highs on Monday amid stable external background and absence of most investors, due to the Easter holidays.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and continues to grow, confirming a previous buy signal for the pair. Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone today and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0740 the pair will go to 1.0755 and the highs of 1.0783.

It is a day off in Australia as in most large countries of the world- Easter holiday continues. Markets of the country will be closed tomorrow as well.
On Wednesday investors will await data on CPI in QI (quarterly growth by 1.2% is expected). Level of lending in the private sector (rise by 0.4% in March) will be made public on Friday as well as the data on the volume of total lending.

The situation in the Australian economy has remained unchanged due to the long holiday. It became known in the middle of last week that index of prices for import increased by 0.9% on quarterly basis in QI. Index of leading indicators rose by 4.7% y/y in March against the rise by 4.8% in February. It is a good result taking into account that the Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rate unchanged for a long time. Leading indicators index demonstrates good growth in the Australian economy: figures show that growth is unlikely to be too high next year; however there will be some growth.
Kevin Rood, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Australia said yesterday that RBA has no plans to carry out currency intervention, although national currency is significantly overvalued. 

Unemployment rate reduced to 4.9% in March versus the preliminary level of 5.0% and employment rate rose by 37.8 thousand last month against the forecast of increase by 24 thousand. Therefore, strong performance in the employment sector pushed the AUD to go upward, instilling investors with the idea that the RBA can resume monetary tightening policy earlier. On the other hand deficit of trade balance was recorded in the country for the first time since spring 2010 (February -?$205 billion against +A$1.4 billion in January). In addition activity index in the service sector reduced to 46.5 points in March against the value of 48.7 points in February.

 

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