AUD: Australian Dollar has not determined movement direction yet

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is traded downward on Friday, as it is determining movement direction.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and goes up, giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic oscillator tends to rise in the neutral zone today, shaping a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: after the correction a target of the pair’s growth can be the levels of 1.0540 ? 1.0580.

Today’s decline of the AUD is explained by strong statistics on China released today, which makes market suggest that continuation of the economic cooling process in China is possible. 

Earlier Finance Minister of Australia Mr. Swan said that Australian economy is positive and will only benefit from economic growth of the developing countries. He thinks that although IMF has revised GDP forecast downward for Australia, country’s economy continues to recover. Note that IMF research showed that GDP forecast for Australia had been reduced to 3% in 2011 against the previous level of 3.5%. Floods in January partly impacted the revision of the forecast.

Macro-economic environment remains mixed in Australia. On the one hand unemployment rate reduced to 4.9% in March versus the prior level of 5.0% and employment rate rose by 37.8 thousand last month against the forecast of increase by 24 thousand. Therefore, strong performance in the employment sector pushed the AUD to go upward, instilling investors with the idea that the RBA can resume monetary tightening policy earlier. On the other hand deficit of trade balance was recorded in the country for the first time since spring 2010 (February -?$205 billion against +A$1.4 billion in January). In addition activity index in the service sector reduced to 46.5 points in March against the value of 48.7 points in February.

According to the data released this week the level of consumer lending Westpac in Australia increased by 1.2%, to the level of 105.3 points in April against preliminary level of -2.4%. Such positive data has reflected public confidence in the prospects of economy. Following the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia last week it was decided to keep current level of the interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.75% per annum – it is the fourth time already when the RBA does not dare to continue monetary policy tightening.

 

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